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 Fort-de-France


The Judge Variable: Challenging Judge-Agnostic Legal Judgment Prediction

Zambrano, Guillaume

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study examines the role of human judges in legal decision-making by using machine learning to predict child physical custody outcomes in French appellate courts. Building on the legal realism-formalism debate, we test whether individual judges' decision-making patterns significantly influence case outcomes, challenging the assumption that judges are neutral variables that apply the law uniformly. To ensure compliance with French privacy laws, we implement a strict pseudonymization process. Our analysis uses 18,937 living arrangements rulings extracted from 10,306 cases. We compare models trained on individual judges' past rulings (specialist models) with a judge-agnostic model trained on aggregated data (generalist models). The prediction pipeline is a hybrid approach combining large language models (LLMs) for structured feature extraction and ML models for outcome prediction (RF, XGB and SVC). Our results show that specialist models consistently achieve higher predictive accuracy than the general model, with top-performing models reaching F1 scores as high as 92.85%, compared to the generalist model's 82.63% trained on 20x to 100x more samples. Specialist models capture stable individual patterns that are not transferable to other judges. In-Domain and Cross-Domain validity tests provide empirical support for legal realism, demonstrating that judicial identity plays a measurable role in legal outcomes. All data and code used will be made available.


Nano: Nested Human-in-the-Loop Reward Learning for Few-shot Language Model Control

Fan, Xiang, Lyu, Yiwei, Liang, Paul Pu, Salakhutdinov, Ruslan, Morency, Louis-Philippe

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pretrained language models have demonstrated extraordinary capabilities in language generation. However, real-world tasks often require controlling the distribution of generated text in order to mitigate bias, promote fairness, and achieve personalization. Existing techniques for controlling the distribution of generated text only work with quantified distributions, which require pre-defined categories, proportions of the distribution, or an existing corpus following the desired distributions. However, many important distributions, such as personal preferences, are unquantified. In this work, we tackle the problem of generating text following arbitrary distributions (quantified and unquantified) by proposing Nano, a few-shot human-in-the-loop training algorithm that continuously learns from human feedback. Nano achieves state-of-the-art results on single topic/attribute as well as quantified distribution control compared to previous works. We also show that Nano is able to learn unquantified distributions, achieves personalization, and captures differences between different individuals' personal preferences with high sample efficiency.